GENERAL Motors plans to have "hundreds of thousands" of hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles on sale by the end of the decade.
And it expects the new propulsion technology to oust the fossil fuel-burning internal combustion engine as the main powerplant in cars well before the end of this century.
That's the prediction of the chief engineer in charge of developing fuel cell technology for the world's biggest car manufacturer.
Dr Udo Winter is in Australia with the HydroGen1 concept vehicle, overseeing its participation in the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games as an escort vehicle for the men's and women's marathons.
Dr Winter heads a 12-member team that has brought the HydroGen1 from the Global Alternative Propulsion Centre (GAPC) in Germany, where it was developed.
GAPC was set up by GM and its European subsidiary, Opel, in 1998. It also has two offices in the US and employs 250 staff.
The HydroGen1 is based on the Zafira compact people-mover which goes on sale in Australia early in 2001.
It is powered by an electric motor supplied with electricity from a fuel cell unit that runs on pure hydrogen.
A fuel cell is an electro-chemical energy converter which produces electrical power and heat from a controlled reaction of hydrogen with oxygen.
Drinkable water is the only by-product of the process - unlike fossil fuel engines which produce a cocktail of toxic gases including carbon dioxide, classified as a "greenhouse gas".
The HydroGen1's electric motor generates 55kW and a constant 251Nm from a standing start, and uses a single stage intermediate reduction gear transmission.
It has a claimed top speed of 140km/h, accelerates from 0-100km/h in 16 seconds and has a range of 400km.
GM is allied with Toyota and several major oil companies in development of fuel cell technology. DaimlerChrysler, Ford and Canadian fuel cell manufacturer Ballard make up the other major consortium.
While there are detail differences between the two approaches, they are united in their support of the fuel cell and hydrogen as the solution to the environmental problems caused by fossil fuels.
DaimlerChrysler is on the record as saying it will have fuel cell vehicles in production by 2003, although it will not say whether it will be in any significant volume.
Dr Winter is confident GM will not be far behind.
"If we talk about some first introductions, some fleets or different applications like buses then it might be 2004," he said.
"But it will be the end of the decade before we have hundreds of thousands of vehicles available.
"In ideal market conditions we expect to see its (fuel cell) share of sales reach 10 per cent by the year 2010 for some specific markets and we believe fuel cell vehicles may even have a 25 per cent share of the global car market 15 years after that." For that to happen, the cost of fuel cell production will have to come down significantly and the technology and on-board storage system developed further for it to be an affordable alternative to the combustion engine.
Even more of a challenge and expensive is the establishment of a service station-style infrastructure for the delivery of hydrogen to the vehicle.
Until that is achieved, GM says intermediate steps need to be taken.
It has developed with ExxonMobil Corporation an on-board reformer that processes petrol into hydrogen and while not as clean as a pure hydrogen system, it significantly reduces the output of carbon dioxide compared to a conventional engine.
Another intermediate step is the hybrid vehicle which combines a conventional petrol engine and electric motor in the one vehicle.
The Toyota Prius and Honda Insight are examples of this type of vehicle already on sale in some markets.
When the issue of delivery of pure hydrogen to the vehicle is resolved, its production will become an issue.
The most popular source of hydrogen is expected to be natural gas, a refining process that has carbon dioxide as a by-product. One proposal is to store the carbon dioxide in giant underground caverns.
But eventually, the theory goes, hydrogen will be produced by sustainable resources such as wind and solar power, making it truly pollution-free.
DRIVE IMPRESSION EXTERNALLY, only the flash paint job indicates HydroGen1 is anything other than a normal Zafira mini people-mover - just like the thousands that now populate the roads of Europe.
Get inside and there are a few more hints.
There is no transmission lever - just an arrow button for forward and another for back.
There is also no tacho, replaced by a kW rating, as well as a digital graph tracing output where the satellite navigation screen once sat.
Press the forward button, foot on the accelerator and after some initial stumbling HydroGen1 accelerates smoothly, displaying all the flexibility you would expect from an engine with 251Nm constantly on tap.
The most significant impression is quietness. What you can hear is a whirr from the compressor as it pumps air in to mix with hydrogen to create the electrical charge.
That noise will disappear as GAPC makes further refinements. After all, we were sampling Version 7 and Version 12 is already on the test bed back in the lab.
The main instrusion you notice from the drivetrain inside the Zafira's cabin are the third row seats have been sacrificed, the load area has been raised 100mm and the rear seat by 30mm.
Otherwise, it is all very familiar and easy stuff. Just as GM wants it to be.