ONE of Australia’s most esteemed automotive engineers, Dr Laurie Sparke, has called for increased focus on converting Australian vehicle fleet to LPG and natural gas if odds and evens rationing days and long queues at petrol stations are to be avoided.
In a blunt warning to a conference run by the Society of Automotive Engineers Australia on gas fuels for motor vehicles this week, Dr Sparke warned that Australia was facing a crisis of supply of transport fuels – especially diesel fuel – as oil depletion takes hold in the nations supplying Australia.
Earlier this year Dr Sparke first flagged the issue of a need for using locally available gas as Australia’s main fuel from motorists and transport operations. But he is now saying the danger to the economy is getting more urgent.
He called for a massive shift to LPG and natural gas “to avert what otherwise will be a catastrophe” for Australia.
Dr Sparke retired recently after a career at GM Holden with his final role at Holden Innovation, a think tank set up to look at the changes in the Australian motoring landscape over the next 10 to 15 years and the effects on vehicle requirements.
He told GoAuto after the conference that “oil depletion is arguably the most serious crisis ever to face Australian society”.
In his presentation, Dr Sparke warned that the Australian government economic research agency ABARE had forecast a 90 per cent probability of “a major and immediate shortfall of oil”.
He said that oil supplies worldwide were predicted by the International Energy Agency to become “extremely tight” within just five years and that this would be disproportionately more painful for Australian transport companies and motorists.
Left: Dr Laurie Sparke.
He said that Australia was now importing more than half its transport fuels (which include fuel for cars) and nearly all supplies of diesel fuel.
He added that oil production in the majority of the nations supplying Australia was now falling and that as many of these nations were developing their economies they would keep more oil for their own domestic use and export less to Australia.
“Peak oil will hit countries dependent on imports and the effects will occur very rapidly once the exporting trade partner’s oil reserves have peaked,” Dr Sparke said.
For example, most of Australia’s imported oil comes from Vietnam where oil production peaked in 2004. There had been a significant decline in production each year since then. But oil exports from Vietnam have nearly halved because of a rapid increase in domestic demand.
“Of the four main suppliers of oil to Australia, only the United Arab Emirates continues to maintain production,” he said.
Dr Sparke said the truck industry was especially vulnerable because of its reliance on imported diesel fuel.
“Australia used 29 billion litres of diesel fuel in the past year of which 90 per cent was used in road transport. Yet the freight task in Australia is predicted to double by 2020 and in some places like Melbourne it is forecast to increase by 400 per cent.” He said Australia was facing a serious supply crunch within five years and needed to be concerned about what other fuel resources would be available in the short term.
“How soon before we relive the fuel shortages of the 1970s and the 1980s with driving and refuelling on alternative days for odds and even numbers plates? “Only this time it will not resolve itself in a few months – it will continue to get worse.” Dr Sparke called for a rapid shift to convert trucks and cars to LPG and natural gas.
“Australia has vast reserves of gas that are adequate to fuel our transport system for the next century and beyond,” he said. “Most importantly, gas can replace the shortfall of oil in the near future, helping us to avert what otherwise would be a catastrophe.” He called on the transport interests in the gas industry to “raise community awareness about the benefits of moving to gas in terms of saving them money, reducing greenhouse gasses and avoiding fuel shortages”.
“Shifting to LPG needs to be promoted as the wise and socially responsible thing to do.” He said the gas industry needs to promote gas to transport firms as a way of saving money in the short term and “as a strategic initiative to ensure business viability when the crunch comes”.
He called on the governments to accelerate the process by buying gas vehicles for their government fleets, funding the development of the best gas fuelling systems, extending the refuelling infrastructure and ensuring that vehicle gas prices encourage a rapid conversion of petrol and diesel vehicles to gas.