Big sixes bounce back in February

THE Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries has revised upwards its 2007 new-car sales forecast to a near-record 980,000 vehicles in the wake of revived large-car sales in February.

The FCAI’s latest estimate is within 9000 vehicles of the total recorded in the Australian automotive industry’s best-ever year of sales – 2005, when a total of 988,269 vehicles were sold.

According to official VFACTS figures released on Monday, a total of 83,740 cars, trucks and buses were sold last month, representing an 8.1 increase on February 2006 levels and a 2600-vehicle increase on February 2005, making an all-time record for the month.

The stronger February result equates to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) of 1.064 million vehicle sales.

Toyota was again the top-selling brand in a total market that saw passenger car sales rise by 8.5 per cent over the same month last year, SUV sales increase 10.4 per cent, heavy commercial vehicle sales rise by 14.0 per cent and light truck sales increase by 3.4 per cent.

After two months of 2007, Toyota leads Holden with a margin of 10,499 vehicle sales, or 6.6 market share points.

Following a lacklustre start to the year, all of the passenger vehicle segments experienced growth in February, with the small car sector up 12.8 per cent month-on-month, light cars up 9.8 per cent, medium cars up 6.2 per cent, people-movers up a big 35.7 per cent and upper large cars up a massive 50.3 per cent.

Only large cars (up 0.2%) and sports cars (up 0.3%) showed static results in February, when compact SUVs were up 18.3 per cent and medium SUVs were up 12.1 per cent. Luxury and large SUVs were down, by 8.1 per cent and 14.4 per cent respectively.

Within the still-dominant large-car under $70,000 segment, Holden experienced its best VE Commodore sale result since its September launch, by selling a total of 5544 Commodore sedans and (VZ) wagons – 15.8 per cent up month-on-month and 8.2 per cent up year-to-date.

Ford’s aging Falcon bounced back from an horrific January sales result to attract 3086 buyers, which is 34.9 per cent down on February 2006 levels and sees Falcon sales a big 31.3 per cent adrift of 2006 numbers in YTD terms.

Unsurprisingly, while it’s upbeat about the spike in February sales, Ford remains circumspect about the long-term sales prospects of the large-car sector, which has shrunk in proportionate terms to the growth in small-car sales over the past two years.

"The industry was incredibly strong in January and also came in very strong in February, but the large-car market held a better position," said Ford Australia president Tom Gorman on Friday.

"I would never extrapolate from one month but I do believe that February gives you a better idea of the running rate than January did, because all the major corporates are back in buying.

"We did over 3000, which was more than a 50 per cent uplift on what we did in January. It’s below what we did last year, and really recognising the segment shifts that we’ve seen in the market through 2006, we recognise that in ’07 it’s going to be very hard for us to grow our overall market share with the large-car market being where it is today." Toyota sold 1817 Camry-based Aurion sedans in February to attract a 15.1 per cent monthly share of the big-six market. YTD, Aurion’s market share of 14.3 per cent trails Falcon (24.6% - down from 35.7%) and Commodore (43.9% - up from 40.4%).

Toyota Australia sales and marketing director David Buttner said the company had expected softer Aurion sales in January and, after consistently withholding official sales forecast since its November launch, revealed that a monthly minimum of 1500 sales are required.

"We said we wanted to do between 1500 and 2000 – that would give us a market share of between 12 and 15 per cent. That’s where we are – we’ve run at 15 per cent since day one of launch and the February result will hopefully drive us beyond that," he said.

"The month of January is usually a bit slow in that large six segment and a lot of the fleet people don’t come back to work until the 15th of the month.

"We’re not disappointed at all – the average running rate is exactly where we wanted it to be and the order intake in February was just sensational, so all those things that we aspirationally had planned for are starting to come to fruition for us."

The final significant player in the sub-$70,000 large-car sector, Mitsubishi’s 380 sedan, found 1014 new homes in February to be lineball with its February 2006 result, but a 2007 total of 2055 vehicles is an 18.8 per cent rise in YTD terms.

The 380 now holds a 10.0 per cent share of the mainstream big-six market, helping the Adelaide car-maker to be 17 per cent up in sales for the month overall and 21.4 per cent up YTD.

Stand-out February performances were posted by BMW, which recorded its best-ever February sales result of 1283, aided by a 20 per cent increase in passenger car sales last month (thanks largely to booming 3 Series sedan, coupe, wagon and convertible sales.

BMW, whose passenger car sales are up 6.8 per cent YTD, says its current X5 is almost sold-out in the lead-up to its successor’s release in April.

Mazda also recorded record February sales of 6365 vehicles (up 16.1 per cent month-on-month) to post an 8.1 per cent YTD market share. Its YTD sales total of 12,992 vehicles is 19.6 per cent up on last year’s record YTD effort and Mazda says it’s on track to sell 65,000 vehicles this year.