Market Insight: FY25 sales trend downward

WITH just one in eight of the past months showing a forward step in new-vehicle sales figures since July 2024, it is clear the impact of a softening economy and growing cost-of-living pressures are making their presence felt on the dealership forecourt.

 

Looking back over the first two-thirds of the 2024-25 financial year, the downward trend in new-vehicle sales is patently obvious – not a single month has surpassed the 100,000-unit mark – with each month (excluding July 2024) showing negative year-on-year numbers.

 

By contrast, the 2023-24 financial year saw monthly sales figures exceed the 100,000-unit mark on six occasions, with the majority setting records for sales growth to culminate in a calendar year record.

 

Current estimates are that it is highly unlikely last year’s record will be broken in 2025.

 

With Fringe Benefits Tax exemptions on increasingly popular and prevalent plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) expiring on April 1, and the impact of the federal government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) already making waves, the forecast for the remainder of the financial year (if not the 2025 calendar year) is far from rosy.

 

Sales of PHEVs are performing well ahead of the April 1 deadline – up 222.2 per cent year-on-year – and regular hybrids (not eligible for the FBT break) are up 42.5 per cent but all other motive power types are down.

 

Petrol vehicle sales have decreased by 15 per cent since February last year, diesel vehicle sales by 14.3 per cent, and battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales by 53.5 per cent, the latter of particular concern to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) chief executive Tony Weber.

 

“We are now two months into the government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), and while the supply of battery electric vehicles has risen dramatically, consumer demand has fallen by 37 per cent this year compared with the first two months of 2024,” he said.

 

However Polestar Australia managing director refuted this claim, pointing out that BEV sales growth of 4.7 per cent has outpaced the broader market (1.7 per cent) year to date.

 

Mr Maynard added that two months without growth in a market-wide downturn is “not unusual for any segment”, adding that the trend is “too limited of a sample from which to draw conclusions”.

 

“We knew the supply of EVs would increase and there are now 88 models supplied to the Australian market,” said Mr Weber.

 

“However, our grave concern has always been the rate of EV adoption and what assumptions the government had made in its modelling around consumer demand for EVs in the NVES. This modelling remains secret.

 

“The easy part is to set aspirational targets but without consumers demanding EVs, the NVES will not succeed. It is time for the government to consider the realities faced by consumers.”

 

Mr Maynard hit back at this notion, accusing the FCAI of "efforts to undermine this (NVES) legislation” and saying such moves would "only disadvantage Australians. 

 

Across the industry, GoAuto’s own projections show an average monthly downturn of 6.9 per cent (based on FCAI figures published March 5) through to the end of the FY2024-25 financial year.

 

Assuming the trajectory remains unchanged, it is anticipated just three months of the current financial year will break the 100,000-unit sales mark.

 

GoAuto’s estimates place the FY2024-25 period to end down 90,029 units – or 7.1 per cent – against FY2023-24.

 

Predicted losses stem from a range of fronts, the latest VFACTS figures showing YTD passenger sales down 29.1 per cent, light commercial vehicle sales down 10.3 per cent, and heavy commercial vehicle sales down 7.6 per cent.

 

Only SUV sales rose above the trend – albeit modestly – up 2.4 per cent.

 

Looking more closely at those figures, we note large losses in the number of small and medium passenger cars sold, down 25.2 and 75.6 per cent year-on-year respectively, SUV light, large, and upper large, down 5.0, 1.7, and 50.3 per cent YoY respectively, and light commercial 4x2 and 4x4 utility models, down 29.2 and 9.7 per cent YoY respectively.

 

FY2024-25 new car sales projections*:

 

	FY2024-25	FY2023-24	Variance
July	99,486	96,859	+2.7%
August	98,328	109,966	-10.6%
September	97,020	110,702	-12.4%
October	98,375	106,809	-7.9%
November	99,091	112,141	-11.6%
December	95,895	98,544	-2.7%
January	86,804	89,782	-3.3%
February	94,993	105,023	-9.6%
March	102,081	109,647	-6.9%
April	90,495	97,202	-6.9%
May	103,433	111,099	-6.9%
June	111,403	119,659	-6.9%

 

*Data supplied courtesy of the FCAI; *GoAuto projections shown in grey.