One in a million

THE Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries has finally subscribed to the view held by the most optimistic of industry observers by predicting one million new vehicles will be sold in Australia this year.

However, its revised official 2005 sales forecast – up from 980,000 – comes despite the first month-on-month sales fall since July 2004.

According to the FCAI’s VFACTS service, 76,118 new vehicles were sold in October, which is down 5549 or 6.8 per cent on October 2004, when 81,667 cars retailed.

The biggest sales slump came in the passenger vehicle market, which fell by 3856 vehicles or 7.4 per cent from October 2004, though the sports utility vehicle (SUV) market was also down (1404 sales or 10.1 per cent), as was the light truck market (down 653 or 5.0 per cent).

Toyota (15,045 sales, 19.8 per cent) was again the top-selling brand last month, followed by Holden (13,923, 18.3 per cent), Ford (9192, 12.1 per cent), Mazda (6001, 7.9 per cent) and Mitsubishi (4751, 6.2 per cent).

On year-to-date figures, Toyota (166,548 vehicles) has stretched its unassailable lead over Holden (147,564), and with an 18,984-vehicle lead is certain to claim the number-one gong for the third successive year.

The overall 2005 YTD tally of 825,465 vehicle sales is ahead of the same period in 2004 by 4.2 per cent or 33,551 sales. However, YTD market share increases by Mazda (6.7 per cent, up from 5.8 per cent at the same time last year), Mitsubishi (from 5.9 to 6.4 per cent), Hyundai (4.5 to 4.9 per cent), Honda (3.9 to 4.8 per cent), Subaru (3.6 to 3.7 per cent) and Kia (2.6 to 2.7 per cent) in particular have resulted in market share reductions for the top three brands this year.

Toyota currently holds a 20.2 per cent overall share (down from 21.1 per cent for the same period in 2004), while Holden is down to 17.9 per cent from 18.7 per cent and Ford holds a 13 per cent share (down from 14 per cent).

Despite a poorer showing in October, the 2005 passenger vehicle market, at 508,119 vehicles, remains 19,695 sales (4.0 per cent) up on the first 10 months of 2004.

YTD results are mixed within the largest vehicle market, however, with the small-car segment up 30,424 (20.4 per cent), light cars up 5492 (7.9 per cent), medium cars up 2467 (6.0 per cent), prestige cars up 2413 (7.8 per cent), sports cars up 603 (8.58 per cent) and people-movers up 433 (3.5 per cent).

The large-car segment remains down a massive 21,409 units (14.3 per cent), while luxury car sales are also 728 (2.7 per cent) down on 2004 figures.

In SUV, which at 150,995 vehicle sales YTD is 7475 vehicles or 5.2 per cent up on 2004, the medium-sized segment is up 10,856 (22.3 per cent), luxury SUVs are up 191 (1.6 per cent) and compacts are up a paltry 55 units (0.1 per cent).

The large-size SUV segment continues its downward spiral and lies 3627 (18.1 per cent) down on 2004 figures.

At 140,830 sales, the light truck market remains 4014 sales (2.9 per cent) ahead in YTD terms, with the main drivers being the pick-up/cab-chassis 4x4 segment (up 3210 or 6.5 per cent), pick-up/cab-chassis 4x2 (up 889 or 1.3 per cent) and light bus (up a big 415 or 31.7 per cent).

Van sales are down by 466 or 2.5 per cent, as is the 2.5 tonne truck segment (34 sales or 2.3 per cent).

Mitsubishi’s new 380 sedan attracted 951 customers in its first month on sale and the company says it wholesaled 2186 examples in the two weeks following its Sydney motor show launch, which is "in line with company expectations". A much stronger 380 result is expected in November.

The 380 helped Mitsubishi to a six per cent sales lift over October 2004, thanks largely to the facelifted 2.4-litre Lancer (up 46 per cent) and the new Evo IX, which found 84 new homes.

Mazda continued its boom sales in a softer October, when it notched up 46 per cent more sales month-on-month to post more than 6000 sales in a month for only the third time ever. The new MX-5 attracted 156 sales in its first full month on sale – its best result since November 2000.

Meantime, Audi backed up 10 consecutive months of growth to post 404 sales in October – 62 per cent up on the same month last year – to be up 41 per cent year-on-year.

Hyundai’s Getz was the best-selling light car again in October, with a facelifted model attracting 968 sales for a YTD total of 14,286.

Corolla (3988) was again the top-selling small car ahead of Mazda3 (3142) and Astra (2772), while the Camry four-cylinder (1806) outsold Mazda6 (1231) and Liberty (632) in the medium car segment.

Commodore was Australia’s top-selling large car by an even bigger margin in October with 4906 sales (45.4 per cent), ahead of its only serious rival in Falcon (3642, 33.7 per cent).

In YTD terms, Holden’s home-grown volume seller has amassed 57,048 sales YTD for a 44.3 per cent share, ahead of Falcon (44,479 or 34.6 per cent).

October Top ten

Pos/Brand/Oct sales/Oct share (%)/YTD share (%)
1 Toyota 15,045 19.8 20.2
2 Holden 13,923 18.3 17.9
3 Ford 9192 12.1 13.0
4 Mazda 6001 7.9 6.7
5 Mitsubishi 4751 6.2 6.4
6 Hyundai 3281 4.6 4.9
7 Honda 3312 4.4 4.8
8 Nissan 3281 4.3 5.7
9 Subaru 2847 3.7 3.7
10 Kia 2173 2.9 2.7
Source: VFACTS