Market Insight: October serves up surprises

IF THERE ever was a month to turn up surprises in Australia’s automotive market, it is usually October and it has happened again in 2022 with a disruptive stamp on the new-car market, including putting Ford back in second position for the first time in 23 years and welcoming two Chinese brands into the top 10 best-sellers.

October also shook up the industry with some of the majors losing market share, though Ford’s downturn in year-to-date sales was assuaged by a spike for October.

Year-to-date data aside, Ford is set for a strong year on the back of – singularly – the Ranger.

To the end of October this year, the Ranger ute and its Everest wagon sibling make up 86 per cent of Ford’s total vehicle sales. In the same period last year, the two models represented 81 per cent of sales.

Demand for the Ranger ute is very strong and supply is restricted, so on year-to-date figures, the increase in Ranger 4x4 sales for the year is actually down by 9.8 per cent, while the 4x2 is down 5.5 per cent. This is also partially down to the runout of previous-generation Rangers to make way for the new one.

On a monthly basis, it is quite a different story. In the month of October, the sales rise was 34 per cent for the Ranger 4x4 and 63.6 per cent for the 4x2. 

However, generational shift has affected the Everest less due to massive deliveries of the new one, the nameplate having sold 8076 units in the first 10 months of this year compared with 6689 in the same period in 2021.

In October alone, the new-generation Everest found 1271 new owners, up a huge 134.1 per cent on October 2021. Year to date, Everest sales are up 20.7 per cent.

The rest of the Ford line-up is lagging. Ford recently announced the end of its once-popular light car, the Fiesta, and clearly the end was abrupt with no sales recorded for October.

Both the segment-straddling Endura SUV and Mondeo mid-size passenger car are gone, Mustang sales have halved in the wake of a new-generation model being announced (now 135 units for October), the also-axed Focus small car sold 24 units for October and Puma sales are drifting, again on the back of the ubiquitous supply issues that are affecting most car-makers.

All up, Ford sales for the year are down 10.8 per cent but – again on the back of the Ranger and Everest – up 43.2 per cent for the month of October.

Mazda is another surprise. It has taken a bit of a hit but its sales follow a similar path to Ford. It is down 10.2 per cent for the year but up 11.5 per cent for October.

Winners are the refreshed and in-stock Mazda CX-5 medium SUV, with a healthy 2352 units sold in October, up 237.4 per cent on the same month last year when a rather modest 697 found buyers. Its year-to-date sales were also up by a less startling 6.6 per cent.

Also winning for Mazda was the CX-9 large SUV, up 295.9 per cent for October and 3.9 per cent for the year.

But there were more losers. Unexpectedly, the BT-50 defied the national uptake in utes by halving in sales compared with October 2021. On a year-to-date basis, the figures were only marginally better and remained in the negative.

The Mazda2 small car was the only other model to make gains both for the month and for the year. 

Volkswagen was another major to wear a negative result on the back of weak supply. It is showing its lowest sales for a decade with year-to-date deliveries down 29.5 per cent, although the German giant is recording a 9.9 per cent increase for October.

The monthly gain for VW was supported by the Crafter van (up 200 per cent); Golf (up 123.2 per cent); Touareg (up 173.4 per cent); T-Roc (up 112.7 per cent) and Tiguan Allspace (up 69.6 per cent).

Of the 19 VW models on sale in Australia, only the Golf (up 63.7 per cent) and Crafter Bus (41.7 per cent) have posted positive sales improvements for the year to date.

The other surprise for October was the entrance of two Chinese brands into the top 10 sales ladder, with MG now in seventh position and GWM (Great Wall and Haval) in 10th.

MG sales continue to soar with 38,891 units delivered this year and 5031 units in October alone, putting the brand in line for 47,000 sales by the end of this calendar year.

In perspective, that is 5000 units above Nissan’s 2021 tally.

GWM also joins the sales ladder, with 18,833 sales YTD and 2462 for October, up 26.5 per cent and 45.5 per cent respectively.

The Chinese brand is now in line to nibble at the same sales rate as BMW (comparing forecast 2022 figures of 22,600 and 24,000 units respectively).

GWM’s strength is the Haval SUV range – particularly the H6 and Jolion – that represent 67 per cent of the brand’s sales. However, the GWM Ute has also been a strong contributor with 6298 sales for October.