Market Insight: Subdued market shows winners

CUSTOMERS singed by almost three years of COVID-19 and its related effects on all links of the car industry chain are still tip-toeing through the market – but there are some unexpected winners, according to May VFACTS data.

People movers and sportscars are flavour of the month with respective May gains of 9.8 per cent and 116.7 per cent, compared with the same month last year

In year-to-date figures, people movers are up 29.8 per cent for the five months of 2023 compared with 2022, while sportscars are up 41.5 per cent. This, in a total market that was up only 4.3 per cent.

Why the interest? Mainly it is ongoing buyer demand that has been tempered by the fluctuations of new-vehicle deliveries. This can show one month with weak sales and the next month a sudden leap in deliveries.

However, it is also attributed to the attraction of new models. In some cases, there has been an exit of a model and prospective buyers have turned their attention to a rival brand.

Volkswagen has four models in the people mover category – Caddy, Caravelle, Multivan and California – and holds a 6.6 per cent share. The brand will replace the current Multivan T6 in mid-2024 with the T7, about the same time it adds the all-electric kombi, the ID.Buzz. 

Mercedes-Benz added the electric EQV which has three sales YTD (one in May) and becomes the fifth model in the category for the brand, which now has 3.9 per cent share.

Toyota has a long association with people movers and has maintained a strong shareholding. However, the increasing competition from lower-priced rivals has clipped its advantage.

But the brand abandoned a purpose-built people mover at the end of 2019 with the Tarago, replacing it with the Granvia that is based on the HiAce commercial van.

The Granvia now has 14 per cent of the market and has a price list starting at just under $70,000 before on-road costs. By comparison, the Kia Carnival starts at $47,480 + ORC and attracts a broader family-based market driven by price – once the domain of the Tarago.

Australia’s people mover market continues to be dominated by the Kia Carnival. It held 54.8 per cent of the sector in 2019 and now has 82.9 per cent of the under-$70,000 bracket (and 78.3 per cent of all people mover sales). It is likely to push its share even higher given the withdrawal of rivals including the Honda Odyssey and LDV G10, the latter replaced by the higher-priced Mifa.

There are 14 models in the people mover sector (six below $70,000 and eight above) with an additional entrant, the Lexus LM, expected to join later this year in the $70,000-plus bracket.

Winners in the top-end of the category are the Mercedes-Benz V-Class with a 46.6 per cent share of the $70,000-plus bracket, followed by its own Vito model (18.5 per cent share), and then by the Volkswagen California and Toyota Granvia with 14 per cent each.

Australia’s sportscar sector is made up of 20 models, with seven in the sub-$80,000 class and led by the Ford Mustang (34.2 per cent share), another 13 in the mid-range $80,000-$200,000 sector, and the top-end $200K+ bracket has nine models.

The Mercedes-Benz C-Class convertible and coupe have a 27.8 per cent share of the mid-range category.

Mercedes delivered a whopping 92 units in May (most arriving that month after some production and delivery delays), up 162.9 per cent on May 2022 when 35 were sold. It has sold 340 units for the year.

The C-Class is not alone. Its sibling, the E-Class coupe and convertible, sold 26 units in May – up 100 per cent on 2022 – and has found 77 owners in the five months of 2023.

Sportscar sales are also lifted by the success of models exceeding $200,000 in price, with nine players now in the market after the cessation of models including the Audi R8, Nissan GT-R and Rolls-Royce coupe and convertibles.

In this rarified air, the Porsche 911 is king with a 43.2 per cent share in May – impressive but not as strong as its 52 per cent recorded in May 2022 – with 64 sales and 176 for the year.

That is a long way north of the next best-seller, the Ferrari brand with a 14 per cent share and 25 sales in May, up 78.6 per cent on the same month of 2022.