Market Insight: Passenger car sales stabilise

HAVE passenger car sales found their floor in Australia? On the used market they are retaining values better than SUVs and utes due to lack of supply caused by the rush to these vehicle types and new passenger car volume has remained relatively stable so far this year, up 0.8 per cent in an overall market that has risen 3.1 per cent.

Of the 160,231 passenger cars delivered so far this year, 58.3 per cent went to private buyers (a 3.8 per cent year-on-year reduction in volume terms) compared with 60.8 per cent of the 520,925 SUVs sold (1.2 per cent more in private volume terms than this time last year).

Government fleet sales are up significantly across the board this year and so are business sales now that waiting lists for retail buyers are all but a thing of the past. However, passenger cars are the only segment to register an increase in sales to rental fleets – and it is a significant 12.9 per cent uptick.

This could be a shrewd bet on passenger car retained values by rental companies, which have bought 10.2 per cent fewer SUVs so far this year and 21.4 per cent fewer light commercial vehicles.

It is a theory that tracks with the fact that just two segments are doing the heavy lifting in keeping passenger sales out of the gutter – small and medium – these categories respectively benefiting from surges in Kia Cerato volume (surging 220 per cent with 12,805 delivered year to date) and Toyota Camry (up 95.7 per cent to 13,953 units).

These results have helped push the sub-$40K small passenger car segment up by 23.5 per cent (56,057 units sold YTD) and sub-$60K medium passenger car volume more than doubling – 109.8 per cent up – to 21,603 sales.

Bracket creep in both directions has muddied the waters for pricier counterparts to these segments, with the Volkswagen Golf and Audi A3 both occupying the small passenger cars above $40K category along with the repeatedly discounted GWM Ora and MG 4 that now belong among the sub-$40K players.

Despite the Cerato’s meteoric rise, Toyota Corolla continues to dominate the sub-$40K small passenger segment with a 34.2 per cent share from 19,175 sales (up 33.4 per cent) and the Mazda3 is up 13.5 per cent. Hyundai i30 sales are down 44 per cent (9243 units, 16.5 per cent share), affected by a lack of hatch supply as sourcing switches from Korean to Czech.

Meanwhile, the MG 5 small sedan contributed a useful 3166 sales to the segment, earning a 5.6 per cent share and BYD’s Dolphin electric hatch added 1740 units for 3.1 per cent of the category and outsold the Subaru Impreza (down 23.6 per cent to 1482 units and 2.6 per cent share).

The Golf-sized MG 4 electric hatch is outselling said VW (its 26.5 per cent slide largely owing to an incoming facelift) by almost two to one so far this year, dominating the higher-priced small passenger segment with a 24.4 share courtesy of 3772 deliveries YTD, single-handedly stabilising a segment in freefall and a long way ahead of the second-placed Audi A3 that notched up 2224 sales for a 14.4 per cent segment share (up 0.7 per cent)

Similarly the Tesla Model 3, which along with the Polestar 2 is no longer included in VFACTS reporting but would likely be demoted to the sub-$60K category along with its BYD Seal rival were it to return.

For now, the BYD’s 5308 sales YTD have scored it second place behind the Camry with a 24.6 per cent segment share while a distant third goes to the Mazda 6 (3.4 per cent share with 987 sold, down 17.1 per cent).

According to VFACTS the above-$60K medium passenger car segment is down 27.3 per cent (to 19,477 sales) but this is skewed by the dispute over New Vehicle Efficiency Standard lobbying that caused Tesla and Polestar to withdraw from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries.

Figures from the Electric Vehicle Council show Tesla would have contributed 15,753 units (up 8.3 per cent) and Polestar 1288 units (down 27.8 per cent), bringing the segment total to 25,644 for a much more modest 4.3 per cent drop in segment volume.

Overall, it seems medium sedans are far from dead, given the BMW i4 electric model’s 1592 deliveries YTD are ahead of the Mercedes C-Class by nine units while slow-selling Alfa Giulia (171, up 17.9 per cent) and Jaguar XE (64, up 14.3 per cent) were the only other medium passenger models above $60K to increase sales.

In the micro segment, sales have dropped by 26.8 per cent YTD, with only the Fiat/Abarth 500 and Kia Picanto remaining, both down almost 30 per cent. Kia is even more dominant here than it is in people movers, holding a 91.3 per cent share.

The light car segment under $30K experienced a 26.6 per cent decline. The Toyota Yaris was up 26.6 per cent but off a low base with just 1877 units sold year-to-date. The Mazda 2 saw a modest increase of 1.6 per cent, while the dominant MG 3 fell 21.4 per cent due to a model change but still commands 47.7 per cent of the segment.

In contrast light cars above $30K saw a 3.7 per cent increase, primarily driven by the VW Polo, which surged 196.9 per cent with 1422 units sold, securing a 43.6 per cent share.

Large passenger cars priced under $70K plummeted by 91.8 per cent, largely due to the end of the Kia Stinger. The Skoda Superb (132 units, down 38 per cent) and temporary resident Citroen C5 X (36 sold, down 42.9 per cent) made up the rest.

Above $70K, the BMW 5 Series remains strong with a 30.6 per cent share from 473 deliveries, marking an increase of 39.5 per cent. The Mercedes E-Class and EQE combined for 437 units, although sales of both declined. The Audi A6 (203 sold, up 14 per cent) and Jaguar XF (11 sold, up 83.3 per cent) were the only risers, alongside the Toyota Mirai FCEV, which found nine buyers YTD compared with two in the same period of 2023.

The sub-$100K upper large passenger car segment died with the Chrysler 300 while the bleeding at the big end of town was stemmed by an additional eight Bentley buyers compared to the first nine months of last year when 11 were sold.

Other net contributors were the last three BMW 6 Series Gran Turismos and five examples – presumably demos – of the new Lotus Emeya BEV.

Sub-$70K MPV sales have declined 9.7 per cent and remain utterly dominated by the Kia Carnival despite a 12.7 per cent decline as the facelifted model ramps up, commanding an 84.4 per cent share from 7633 deliveries YTD and leaving four players to mop up the remaining 1413 sales year-to-date – including the Staria runout campaign that helped it achieve 7.8 per cent growth to 955 units (10.6 per cent share).

In the higher price range, the only models in positive territory are the miscategorised VW California motorhome (112 sold, up 41.8 per cent) and Toyota Granvia (up 2.2 per cent with 91 sales), alongside the Lexus LM newcomer, which contributed 206 deliveries to take second place with a 17.9 per cent share after the VW Multivan (458 units, 39.9 per cent share, down 15.7 per cent).

In the sub-$80K sportscar market, generation changes for the Mini Cabrio and Ford Mustang tell part of the story, while Toyota GR86 and Subaru BRZ sales dropped by almost half. The only model to see an increase in this segment is the Mazda MX-5, up 32.5 per cent on 506 deliveries, securing an 18.8 per cent share.

Most models in the over-$80K sportscar segment are down, save for the dominant BMW 2 Series coupe and convertible, which increased by 70.4 per cent with 1259 units sold to earn a 35.4 per cent share.

Porsche Boxster sales doubled with 232 delivered and the Cayman was up 44.7 per cent with 317 sold. The incoming Mercedes CLE got 314 buyers and 44 Jag F-Type deliveries represented an 18.9 per cent bump over last year.

If you wondered who is most insulated – or benefiting – from interest rate rises and the cost-of-living crisis, VFACTS figures suggest it is probably those who can pay to play in the sportscars above $200K segment, which is up 26.1 per cent.

More than half of segment sales went to the Porsche 911 (up 53.7 per cent with 664 delivered), while Lamborghini managed a 10.7 per cent uptick year-to-date with 124 deliveries, Aston Martin shipped 70 sportscars (up 27.3 per cent) and Maserati is up 16.7 per cent with 21 sold.