Mixed outlook for New Zealand

THE New Zealand car industry remains cautious as it enters 2011, despite an increase in new vehicle sales of 14.8 per cent in 2010.

Although vehicle sales totaled 80,453 – passenger cars were up 14 per cent to 62,029 and light commercials rose 30 per cent to 18,424 – that was still 17.3 per cent below 2008’s tally of 97,330.

Used import sales rose 27.1 per cent to 91,410, just 8.3 per cent below the 99,701 reached in 2008.

Motor Industry Association CEO Perry Kerr said he was happy with the 2010 result because it was higher than the initial industry prediction.

Toyota recorded its 23rd year at the top with a dominant 22.4 per cent market share, despite adverse publicity early in the year over recalls.

The biggest changes in the top 10 were Mitsubishi – with a percentage point increase in share – and Honda, which lost a similar amount.

From top: Toyota HiLux, Suzuki Swift, Holden Commodore.

Mitsubishi NZ sales and marketing chief Daniel Cook said the key to its success was new product and the Diamond Advantage warranty that launched in November 2009.

Honda NZ managing director Graeme Seymour said the company chose not to cut prices to retain market share and remains convinced Honda NZ is in good health.

“When you pick a fight in a depressed market you can spend a lot of money,” he said.

“We judged some companies would price to fight for share, and we chose not to do that.

“Our dealer network is still strong. We’ve seen dealer profitability up on previous years (and) service and used car profitability has been strong.

“Now the market is starting to lift, you can watch us be more aggressive. We think as private buyers get their debt down they will start returning to the market. There will be some recovery and we will grow ahead of that.”

Mercedes-Benz topped the luxury market with 1425 sales (including 601 light commercials), but Audi led the passenger tables at 1281, up 22.3 per cent on 2009.

Toyota’s overall market lead came from 18,035 registrations (up 18.3%), with Ford second on 9420 (up 10.4%), and Holden third on 7799 (up 19.3%).

Mazda (6316, up 10.9%), Hyundai (5653, up 12.1%), Nissan (5228, up 20.9%), Suzuki (4518, up 21.0%) and Mitsubishi (4374, up 40.3%) completed a top eight that was identical in order to 2009.

VW rose to ninth with 2378 sales (up 21.9%), just five units ahead of Honda, which rounded out the top ten with 2373 sales (down 14.4%).

The top-selling models for 2010 were the Toyota Corolla (4890), Toyota HiLux (3454), Suzuki Swift (2724) and Holden Commodore (2564).

Suzuki NZ CEO Bill Grice believes the Swift cuts across all age groups and has become an iconic car, like the Mini was many years ago, but is very cautious about the 2011 market.

“I don’t think there’s the consumer confidence out there that there should be,” said Mr Grice.

“I don’t think the banks have helped they provide an umbrella on a sunny day and take it away when it rains. That, and the fact people have lost equity in their dwellings, means a lot of the money out there has gone to repaying debt.

“There’s less disposable income around, despite what the government says. There’s a fuel component in nearly everything you buy and if fuel stays at over the $2 mark it’ll have a huge impact. It puts commodity prices up and people spend more just to get to work, so it has a compound effect.”

His counterpart at Toyota NZ, Alistair Davis, also remains conservative and does not believe the rate of recovery will be maintained.

“I don’t think the bounce-back will continue at the same rate,” warned Mr Davis. “It was driven by businesses that couldn’t keep extending their leases.

“We’re now in a position where the economy is growing only very slowly, and where there is growth – in tourism and dairy – the money is being channeled into paying down debt and improving savings. Consequently, if people can avoid buying a new car, they will.

“Our projection is two or three per cent growth – with total numbers only slightly ahead of 2010. The market will get up, but it will take three or four years as our population slowly increases, rather than as we get wealthy.”

The MIA is less pessimistic, with Mr Kerr predicting strong growth and a return to record sales.

“We pick the same level of increase as the economy will remain strong due to the rugby world cup, election year, and the necessity for fleet buyers to upgrade their fleets,” said Mr Kerr.

“The increase will take the market back to 2008 figures.”

NZ top 10 makes2010:
Rank	Make	Sales	%Share
1	Toyota	18,035	22.7%
2	Ford	9420	11.7%
3	Holden	7799	9.7%
4	Mazda	6316	7.8%
5	Hyundai	5653	7.0%
6	Nissan	5228	6.5%
7	Suzuki	4518	5.6%
8	Mitsubishi	4374	5.4%
9	Volkswagen	2378	3.0%
10	Honda	2373	3.0%

Source: MIA NZ